The concepts the bench relies on. To use the tool, go to the bench; for definitions, see the glossary.
Why the explanation with fewer assumptions is usually worth considering first — and the three ways the razor is misused.
Inferring the most likely explanation from an observation — how it differs from deduction and induction, and why it can always be overturned.
Do not trust first impressions, and do not be carried away by a single piece of evidence. Look at the base rate, then at the strength of the evidence.
A vivid explanation can still be very unlikely. Ignoring how rare something is, is the most common inference trap.
Two things happening together may be coincidence, reversed, or caused by a third factor. Three misreadings plus practical tests.
The more specific the clues, the narrower the possibilities. A checklist you can follow: time, location, frequency, change, exclusions.
One guarantees, one generalises, one gives the most likely. A comparison table with examples and when to use each.
"Possible" spans a huge range and carries almost no information. A mapping of probability words to ranges, and how to express uncertainty better.