Method

Turn limited clues into testable hypotheses.

No omniscience. The clues are laid out, possibilities enumerated, implausible options pushed down, and the survivors given a probability, a basis and a test.

Five steps

Deconstruct — List each clue separately (time, location, frequency, change, exclusions) so every one can be questioned and tested.
List every possibility — Enumerate candidate explanations first — including the unlikely ones. Premature convergence is the most common inference error.
Filter with common sense and base rates — Remove options that reality makes rare. If a phenomenon is very uncommon, its prior probability should be pulled down hard.
Probability + basis + verification — For each surviving option: an approximate probability, the specific clues supporting it, and how to verify it — a testable hypothesis, not a verdict.
Reconstruct the scenario — Take the most likely conclusion and rebuild how events would have unfolded — useful for knowing what to look at next.

Why it is built this way

Enumerate before you eliminate. People typically latch onto the first explanation that comes to mind. Ockham forces the alternatives onto the table first, then filters — which counters anchoring and confirmation bias.

Let base rates temper the story. A vivid explanation can still be very unlikely if such things rarely happen. That is Bayesian thinking: look at how common it is, then at how strong the evidence is.

Give a way to verify, not a verdict. Every high-probability option comes with a concrete test — what to observe, record or compare — until the clue supports or refutes it.

Occam's razor. When two explanations fit the available clues, keep the one with fewer assumptions and better testability. New clues may overturn the previous conclusion — that is the point.

Limits

Output is probabilistic inference — not a finding of fact, not evidence.
Do not use it to accuse, profile or identify individuals.
Consult a professional for medical, legal, financial or safety matters.
The more specific the clues, the narrower the possibilities; vague input only yields wide ranges.

Related: FAQ · About · Privacy