How likely is "likely"?

1. A rough mapping

Common verbal probability terms and the ranges they roughly cover (people differ — which is precisely why alignment is needed):

Phrasing	Rough range
Almost impossible	< 5%
Unlikely	5% – 20%
Possible	20% – 50%
Coin flip / even chance	35% – 65%
Likely	65% – 85%
Very likely	85% – 95%
Almost certain	> 95%

Note how wide "possible" is — it carries almost no information, which is where a lot of misunderstandings start.

2. Why vague words fail

• Different anchors — the speaker means 70% by "likely"; the listener hears 90%.
• Emotional inflation — the more you hope something happens, the higher you push the range.
• Ignoring base rates — judging by vividness and forgetting how common the thing is; see the base-rate fallacy.

3. Better ways to say it

1. Give a range, not a point — "about 60–75%" is more honest than "about 70%".
2. Attach the basis — "I put it at sixty percent because …". A probability without a basis is just a feeling.
3. State what would change your mind — "if X appears, I would move to eighty percent".

A probability is not a posture; it is a judgement that can be updated.

4. Using it in practice

Every high-probability option in Ockham comes with a range, a basis and a way to verify — exactly to replace adjectives with testable statements. Related: Bayesian thinking, glossary.