Example · Decision analysis

Should I change jobs?

Inference does not make the decision. It does something else: it turns "I am torn" into a few researchable questions.

现象 · QUESTION

Should I leave my current job? (Three years in; an offer is being discussed.)

已知线索 · CLUES5 条

Current role: three years, salary unchanged for two
Feeling: drained for six months; weekends do not help
Offer: about 20% higher salary, but a narrower industry
Constraint: 32 years old, a mortgage, family supportive of a change
Unknown: the new team's culture and stability

可能性排序 · HYPOTHESES概率为估计，不是结论

1. Accept the new offerabout 40%

依据：Pay and state improve clearly; conditional on the team and stability surviving investigation

2. Stay and push for change (raise or internal move)about 35%

依据：Cheapest and testable first; a positive response may remove the need to leave

3. Stay, but keep looking elsewhereabout 20%

依据：Not rushing into this one option, buying time for a better match

4. Something else (a break, going independent)about 5%

依据：Requires additional conditions to be viable

怎么验证 · VERIFY

Ask around the new company about team stability and management style (at least two independent sources)
Have one formal conversation about pay or scope with the current employer and observe the response
Work out how long a gap you could absorb (savings ÷ monthly costs)
Write down "what would have to be true in three months for me not to regret this"

场景还原 · RECONSTRUCT

There are only two real unknowns: whether the new team is as described, and whether the current employer will change. Salary is a known quantity and not the decisive variable. What settles the decision is the result of those two investigations.

复盘 · REVIEW

The output of decision inference is not "leave" or "stay" but a conversion from emotional gridlock into a list of facts to gather. This page is an inference example and not career or financial advice; for a major decision, combine it with your own circumstances and a trusted adviser.

本页是一次推演示例：结论为概率性推断，不是事实认定，也不构成任何专业建议。你的线索与结果不会被保存。想自己推一次，见推演台；方法见方法论。