Example · Everyday puzzle

Seepage on the balcony wall

"Does the damp track the rain immediately, or lag behind?" decides between exterior sealing and water pooling above.

现象 · QUESTION

The exterior corner of my balcony keeps becoming damp and the paint is blistering — where is the water coming from?

已知线索 · CLUES5 条

Location: exterior corner of the balcony, near the inside of the sliding-door track
Timing: worse over the past month, clearly worse when it rains
Appearance: blistering paint and mould, slowly spreading
Above: the balcony directly above is in the same position
Ruled out: no interior water pipes run through that area

可能性排序 · HYPOTHESES概率为估计，不是结论

1. Exterior or window-frame sealing has failed, letting rain inabout 40%

依据：Worse with rain and located at an exterior corner fits rain penetration

2. Water pooling on the balcony above seeping downabout 30%

依据：The balcony above is in the same position; slow continuous dampness fits standing water

3. The balcony drain or outlet is back-falling, pooling waterabout 20%

依据：If the drain sits higher than the puddle, water lingers and migrates

4. Air-conditioner condensate drippingabout 10%

依据：Depends on season and air-conditioner use

怎么验证 · VERIFY

Log the relationship between dampness and rainfall (does it worsen immediately after heavy rain?)
Inspect the drain on the balcony above for blockage and standing water
Check the condensate outlet position and when it drips
Have exterior sealing and any work at height inspected and done by a professional

场景还原 · RECONSTRUCT

If exterior sealing has failed, the damp worsens as the rain falls. If water is pooling above and seeping through, the damp typically lags by half a day to a day and worsens when the flat above uses or drains water. That delay is the most stable difference.

复盘 · REVIEW

Check lag versus immediacy first, and only then decide whether to talk to the building management, the upstairs flat, or an exterior repair. Inspecting at height carries real risk and must be done by a professional.

本页是一次推演示例：结论为概率性推断，不是事实认定，也不构成任何专业建议。你的线索与结果不会被保存。想自己推一次，见推演台；方法见方法论。